GUIEP's Scientists Announce Globally: Earthquakes Can Be Predicted

Earthquakes, a natural disaster beyond human control, have long been considered unpredictable "black swans" by the scientific community. However, at the global press conference held in Medford, Massachusetts, USA, on October 11, scientists from the GU Institute of Earthquake Prediction (GUIEP) publicly announced to the world: "Earthquakes can be predicted." This decisive scientific conclusion is seen as a direct challenge to the "earthquake unpredictability theory" that has long constrained seismological research, aiming to end this century-old scientific misconception. It will change humanity's passive attitude towards earthquakes and mark a milestone in global earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. (Figure 1)

Figure 1: Press conference site

The press conference was hosted by the GU Institute of Earthquake Prediction (GUIEP) and co-organized by the Asian American Friendship Association and the US-China Partnership Alliance (SAPA). Hundreds of government officials, scientists, and media representatives from around the world attended the press conference in person or online. (Figure 2) Ms. Beatriz Stein, Consular of Ecuador in Boston, and Mr. Paul Donato, Massachusetts Representative, were in attendance. Mr. Klysler Yen, Chairman of the Asian American Friendship Association and co-founder of GUIEP; Ms. Athena Goldman Liu, President of SAPA; Ms. Breanna Lungo-Koehn, Mayor of Medford in Massachusetts, where the institute is located; and Jeff Wang, Mayor of Union in California, also spoke via video or participated online.

Figure 2: Hundreds of attendees are from the world

The GU Earthquake Prediction Institute (GUIEP) was founded  by the renowned scientist Professor Jicheng Gu in Boston, USA, in 2020. Gu graduated from the Department of Physics/Geophysics at Peking University in the 1960s and joined the Institute of Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. In 1980, Gu studied fracture mechanics and source physics, nonlinear system stability theory, and tribology at the Department of Engineering at Brown University, the Department of Applied Sciences at Harvard University, and the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Gu has long been engaged in research on earthquake source physics and earthquake prediction methods, and was one of the first to introduce fracture mechanics into earthquake research. He personally visited the sites of the 1966 Xingtai earthquake and the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China. He has chaired world-class international conferences on fracture physics and seismology and has published nearly 100 high-level papers on earthquakes and fracture mechanics in academic journals. (Figure 3)

Figure 3: Professor Jicheng Gu made a press release on behalf of the GUIEP

At the press conference, Professor Gu Jicheng explained, "Earthquake prediction is listed as one of the world's top ten scientific challenges and has always been one of the most controversial research areas in the global seismology community. Throughout decades of academic debate, mainstream international seismologists have generally agreed that earthquakes are random, sudden events. Earthquakes are random processes, offering only probabilistic predictions, not accurate forecasts. Based on this understanding, the mainstream seismological community has abandoned earthquake prediction research, focusing instead on earthquake early warning, earthquake hazard assessment, and post-disaster emergency response. A stark reality is that among the nearly 50,000 higher education and research institutions worldwide, many offer departments and majors related to earth sciences (geophysics, geology, and seismology), but none formally offer courses in earthquake prediction. This academic state, which virtually "seals off" earthquake prediction, is a concrete manifestation of "scientific fatalism" in the seismology field.

Professor Gu said, "Based on modern physics, mathematics, nonlinear dynamics, chaos theory, and his theory of seismicity, I have theoretically disproven the erroneous conclusion that earthquakes are random processes. Through mathematical, physical, and practical applications, I have demonstrated that earthquakes are a process characterized by quasi-periodicity, low-dimensional chaos, and weak white noise. It is a deterministic process and can be predicted. This has laid a solid theoretical foundation for earthquake prediction." This groundbreaking conclusion was the highlight of the press conference.

Seismicity Index (S)——A new fundamental quantity in seismology

Professor Gu briefly and vividly introduced several seismological theories he founded, including the Seismicity Index S.

In 1935, American seismologists Richter and Gutenberg first proposed and defined the concept of magnitude (M). This provided a quantitative indicator for describing the intensity of a single earthquake. It has become a fundamental physical quantity in seismology and has significant implications for the study of seismology, particularly source physics.

Earthquakes don't occur singly. Seismologists often refer to increased or altered seismic activity in a certain area, referring to the activity of a group of earthquakes. This concept is both clear to seismologists and vague. There is no quantitative indicator to describe the intensity of this activity. Professor Gu Jicheng's new concept, the "Seismicity Index (S)," quantitatively describes the intensity of a group of earthquakes within a specific time and space domain. To use a basketball analogy, magnitude (M) is like the technical indicators that describe the performance of individual players like Jordan or Yao Ming, while S is a quantitative description of the overall performance of the entire team. M is a scalar, while S is a multidimensional tensor that contains richer physical information than magnitude (M). This new fundamental physical quantity will be widely used in the entire field of seismology, including earthquake prediction, and even in the entire field of earth and space science. (Figure 4)

Figure 4: Gu presented his signed Seismicity Index Map to the attendees

The "Three-Five Criteria" for Earthquake Prediction

Earthquake prediction can be divided into long-term, medium-term, short-term, and pre-earthquake forecasts. The first three provide important scientific foundational information for pre-earthquake prediction, but pre-earthquake prediction is even more crucial. So, how do we determine the scientific validity of an earthquake prediction? Gu's team has proposed three criteria (elements) for successful earthquake prediction and five aspects for complete prediction, collectively referred to as the "Three-Five Criteria" for earthquake prediction:

——Three elements:

According to statistics, over one million earthquakes of magnitude 2 or greater occur worldwide each year, including approximately 150 major earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater (Figure 5). From a practical perspective, earthquake prediction should focus on predicting destructive earthquakes. First, a successful prediction requires clear predictions for the following three elements:

1. Time: The prediction of the earthquake's occurrence time. This is a lead time prediction on the order of hours, ranging from minutes to tens of hours.

2. Location: Determine the radius or range.

3. Magnitude: Determine the size or scope.

Figure 5: Magnitude and corresponding energy, and the number of earthquakes occurring worldwide each year.

——Five Aspects:

Furthermore, truly implementing earthquake prediction should encompass the following five aspects:

1. Three-element predicting: Before a major earthquake occurs, the three elements of its time, location, and magnitude are predicted (long-term, medium-term, short-term, and impending earthquake predictions).

2. Earthquake type assessment: Immediately after an earthquake occurs, the type of earthquake is assessed. After a major earthquake, citizens and government officials alike often wonder, "Are there more powerful earthquakes to come?" "Is this already the main shock?" and so on. We seismologists must answer these questions immediately. In other words, we must determine whether the earthquake is a mainshock-aftershock type, a double-shock type, or even a strong earthquake swarm. This not only provides a second forecast for the next or several major earthquakes but is also crucial for earthquake relief, government decision-making, and public reassurance.

3. Strong aftershock predicting: Once a major earthquake is confirmed to be a mainshock-aftershock type, forecasting the timing of its strong aftershocks remains crucial for the safety of those affected and the responders themselves. Because strong aftershocks can pose a constant threat to people's lives in disaster-stricken areas where the main earthquake has already destroyed and remaining debris remains, accurate predictions of strong aftershocks are crucial.

4. Predicting the earthquake sequence development trends and characteristics: This has practical implications for disaster relief and post-earthquake planning in disaster-stricken areas.

5. Predicting late strong aftershocks: This determines whether a strong aftershock will be followed by another. This has positive implications for rebuilding homes and reassuring the people.

California Major Earthquake Prediction and Global Earthquake Prediction System

After sharing some prediction cases, Professor Gu specifically introduced the time window for future M8+ earthquakes in California, which highly piqued the interest of the attendees. Gu further explained the concept of establishing the Global GUIEP2020 Earthquake Prediction System and the plan to launch its application first in California.

Professor Gu emphasized that this press conference was not only a showcase of scientific research results, but also a call for the global seismological community to re-examine the established notion that earthquakes are unpredictable, rediscover the mission of earthquake prediction research, and jointly participate in this scientific revolution that matters to human safety. The Institute also hopes that this press conference will garner long-term attention and funding from foundations, businesses, and the public for earthquake prediction, encouraging more scientists to join this field that is crucial to humanity's future security.

Casting a stone into still waters sparks off ripple effect

It is gratifying that the information released and the initiative advocated at the press conference have received a strong response from all sectors of society.

Mr. Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of the Bloomberg Philanthropies, sent a congratulatory letter to the press conference, wishing it a success.

Mr. Klysler Yen, Chairman of the Asian American Friendship Association and also a co-founder of GUIEP, stated, "Earthquake prediction is a shared benefit for all mankind. We are willing to work with all of society to support this historic scientific endeavor."

Ms. Athena Goldman Liu, President of the US-China Partnership Alliance (SAPA), noted, "Earthquakes, disease, and war are the three greatest killers of human life. While we focus on the casualties caused by war and epidemics, we should not ignore another harsh reality: a major earthquake lasting only seconds can claim far more lives than a year of war. The breakthrough achieved by the courageous and ingenious GU team is not only a scientific advancement, but also a great contribution that transcends national boundaries and benefits all humanity."

Breanna Lungo-Koehn, Mayor of Medford, where the institute is located, praised the GU Institute's breakthrough in unlocking potential and accurately predicting earthquakes as a major scientific breakthrough, marking another contribution to science for Medford, a major scientific innovation center in the Greater Boston area. (Figure 6)

Figure 6: Medford Mayor Breanna Lungo-Koehn delivered a video speech

Jeff Wang, Mayor of Union City, California, said, "To date, all the California earthquake forecasting we've seen indicate a 99% probability of a major earthquake within the next 30 years. However, this forecasting doesn't even tell us when the probability of a major earthquake is highest, tomorrow or 30 years from now. This uncertainty evokes a sense of panic and helplessness. The deterministic predictions released by the GU Institute provide a specific time window, enabling us to make more scientific public safety decisions and emergency preparedness. We look forward to the swift and coordinated deployment of your research findings to address the shortcomings of our real-time warning system and help us build a more resilient earthquake prevention and disaster reduction system."

At the press conference, several charitable organizations and individuals donated to GUIEP. Mr. Niu Xiaolin, who personally experienced the Tangshan earthquake, donated his book on the subject to the institute (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Writer Niu Xiaolin presents his book Diary of Tangshan Earthquake to the Institute.