Determine the earthquake type and prediction of strong aftershocks
- GUIEP
- Aug 2
- 1 min read
Updated: Aug 3
M 8.8 - 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia
Earthquake Time: 2025-07-29 23:24:52 (UTC)
Location:52.512°N 160.324°E
Depth: 35.0km
--------------------Recorded by USGS
This prediction is released by GUIEP at 2025-08-03 20:00 (UTC).
Regarding to the earthquake (M8.8 in Kamchatka Peninsula Russia, 2025-07-29 23:24:52UTC), our calculations yield two conclusions:
Earthquake type: Mainshock-aftershock type. This means no more earthquakes of magnitude 8.8 or higher will occur in this area in the next few months.
Strong-aftershock Prediction: From now (2025-08-03 20:00 UTC), the next strong aftershock greater than magnitude 5.5 but less than magnitude 5.9 will occur around 4:23 AM on August 4, 2025. If this does not occur, a strong-aftershock of magnitude 6 or higher will occur around 11PM on the 4th.
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We predicted there would be a strong aftershock (M=5.5~5.9) occured at 4:23 AM on August 4, 2025. The real shock is below:
Time: 2025-08-04 04:20:53 (UTC)
Location: 48.780°N, 156.469°E
Depth: 10km
Mag: 6.2
___Recorded by USGS___
Since M=6.2 was the largest earthquake within this narrow time window, we determined that this strong aftershock was the earthquake we predicted. We see a time deviation of only 2 mins and 7 seconds, indicating that the prediction was accurate.